Control, Control, You Must Learn Control

I have not studied the polls with the sort of depth needed to have a really solid sense of what would happen if the Harper government fell this fall. My quick-and-dirty guess is another minority, maybe Conservative, maybe Liberal. What looks better for the Liberals is the appearance that Ignatieff is in control of the situation. He has said that he’s not satisfied that the Cons are working hard enough, especially on EI reform – a non-trivial issue given the economy. By talking in this manner, Ignatieff gives the impression that he is prepared for an election and has an actual issue over which he could conceivably fight it. It’s a much better appearance than the one Dion presented where the Liberals appeared mortified at the thought of an election. Dion barely seemed in control of his party at times, let alone the overall situation in the House.

Like a lot of progressive-minded Canadians, I’m still not a super-Iggy fan but it’s nice to have a political tactician who can do the realpolitick thing as well as Harper. Also, it has to be a huge benefit for the Liberals to have Bob Rae playing the role of the good soldier and pointing out that “[a]n election is not a political game. An election is about fundamental choices. It’s about our values. It’s about our interests, where we think the country needs to go and there is a sense that this government is just not up to the job.”

To my Liberal friends

This is the first in a series of posts I’m planning to do on what the Liberal Party needs to do in order to win again. I’m going to focus on the Liberals here because I believe that they represent the best chance to put a more progressive party into government. Jack Layton and the NDP tried hard to convince Canada that they were the new mainstream progressive party – but so far voters remain unconvinced. So in the spirit of progressive pragmatism I’m going to address these words to Liberals. Here goes:

Big Ideas: Don’t get any

I thought that the Green Shift wasn’t a bad idea. Insofar as something needs be done about our environmental impact, it seemed like a reasonable solution. The problem though was that it was complicated in practice. I think if you follow politics closely, it’s easy to lose sight of how little many people pay attention to these things. I pushed hard on this blog for electoral reform in Ontario. I thought that the proposal was easy enough to follow – vote for a candidate, vote for a party. Done. Easy. When I tried explaining it to a number of people who weren’t close politics watchers, they furrowed their brows and waved their hands “Who can understand this complicated and weird new system?!” was essentially their reply to the question of electoral reform. Simple, incremental platforms seem to work the best.

What was Chretien’s defining idea? The deficit reduction? He only decided to wipe out the deficit one he got into power, he was way less aggressive on it in the ‘93  campaign than either Campbell or Manning were. What was Harper’s defining idea? Not much, just that the Liberals were stale in government. Canadians seem to prefer go-slow incrementalists to big ideas and crazy dreams. Look at Brian Mulroney: he got the lowest poll numbers of any sitting prime minister in Canada and was defined by two big ideas: constitutional reform and free trade. The Liberals should ditch the idea of an over-arching grand scheme and look for progressive solutions to ordinary problems. It’s not sexy, but it’s something that can generate votes.

Liveblogging the Election

To kick things off, here’s a shot of my high-tech media command centre:

Everything after this is in reverse chronological order. No results until all polls close.

11:20pm: Okay, still a Con minority, still the same MP in my riding. I’m going to bed, more reflection tomorrow.

11:19pm: Local news – Olivia Chow is still my MP.

11:15pm: Oh well, at least electoral reform is a popular topic on twitter.

11:07pm: I tried to give Dion the benefit of the doubt since he became Liberal leader, it becomes much harder after tonight.

11:02pm: Crackpot far-right-winger Peter Kent may take Susan Kadis’ seat, ugh.

10:58pm: The Cons looks like they’re going to be frozen out of Toronto proper. Good.

10:46pm: Conservative minority government according to CBC.

10:44pm: Thank goodness that the good people of Quebec had the sense too put the brakes on the Harper sweater-vest steamroller.

10:41pm: Looks like Garth Turner is out in Halton. But Gerrard Kennedy is in.

10:38pm: 140 seats for the Cons, a little close for comfort.

10:31pm: Fortier can’t win a seat! Hah! Back to the senate?

10:30pm: Credit to Dion – I’m impressed that the Liberals are strong in Quebec at all. Good job there, Stephane.

10:29pm: The story emerging is that the Cons lost it in Quebec, otherwise they’d have won it in Ontario.

10:26pm: Still think Dion’s job is in jeopardy.

10:25pm: Probably another Con minority – even Rick Anderson says so.

10:23pm: Rona Ambrose is headed back to Ottawa so she can continue to be useless.

10:21pm: In my riding, Trinity-Spadina, it looks like Olivia Chow is going to squeak through again.

10:14pm: The prospect of any Con seat inside the 416 (i.e.: Toronto proper) is disgusting. John Turner said the voters are never wrong. Bullshit. Con-voting Torontonians must have some kind of political equivalent of a death-wish. Get ready for everything to suck.

10:12pm: It looks like things are going to be uncomfortably close to a Con majority. Sigh…

10:09pm: Carolyn Bennett looks to be winning her riding. It’s nice to see that the people of St. Pauls were not intimidated by a few terrorist acts.

10:05pm: So is Dion going to resign or what? The Cons are appearing to make inroads in Ontario after telling the world it was the “last place” to invest.

10:03pm: Elizabeth May failed to knock off Peter MacKay and really has nothing to show for her party’s efforts in terms of seats.

10:00pm: All the polls are closed. CBC says Conservative government. Shit. Fingers crossed for a minority government.

9:53pm: Why do so many Green candidates look like bike couriers?

9:34pm: It’s weird having a picture of my computer on my computer.

Getting ready for the results to come in…

I have:

One (1) television tuned to CBC,

One (1) laptop, and

One (1) stiff drink – Woodford Reserve in my case.

Time to Swallow Partisan Pride

If you want to stop Harper that is. When you’re in the ballot box today think about this: is it really worth it to split the vote and give Harper control of this country just so you can say that you were a good, loyal Liberal/NDP/Green foot-soldier? ABC people, ABC.

Voting Day -1

Some random thoughts:

It’s all over tomorrow. From what the polls are saying, this looks like it may be a parliament nearly identical to the one that preceded it. One thing I would like to see is that the Conservatives make no more inroads in Ontario. It is still unconscionable to me that Flaherty would badmouth this province as the “last place” to invest because he was unsatisfied with our corporate tax rates. Whatever you feel about tax rates the sheer stupidity of a federal ministry deriding one province as no place to do business because it frustrated his goal of creating a low-tax “brand” for Canada is mind-boggling. By the way Jim, the fact that equalization screws over Ontario may also have something to do with our tax rates.

I really hope that Harper does not get a majority, I like my iPod.

Does anyone know what Harper would do with a majority? His government put up the censorship provisions in bill C10 (something they surely did not run on) and then dropped them in the new platform. Remember income trusts? The greatest threat from Harper is that it is simply impossible to predict what policies he will implement. He might extend the Afghan mission indefinitely, or break up the CBC or, well, who knows?

This could be three minority parliaments in row. Has the sky fallen? Proportional representation will seem less scary the more we see minority governments operate just fine.

Deja Vu

Take a look at James Travers today. It’s a decent article, but you read that David Peterson comparison here first.

The Threats to Toronto Liberals

I know that this is speculation, but it appears that the campaign of terror against Liberal supporters in St. Pauls and Parkdale-High Park is being done by the same group or individual that attacked Liberal supporters in Willowdale and Guelph. In Guelph these idiots mentioned the gun registry bill (C-68) and in Toronto they wrote that the mayor of Toronto lies. Given the mayor’s high-profile campaign against handguns it appears guns are again the issue.

Here we have someone engaging in criminal acts to apparently advance the agenda of “responsible” gun owners. The same gun owners who try to draw a distinction between themselves and criminals – as though no legitimate gun owner would ever commit a crime. Here we have someone who wants lax gun control and is clearly flirting with murder. How many legal gun owners are completely insane like this? Even if it’s only 5-10% it shows why we need gun control.

These acts of terror have only hardened my conviction that no one save police officers needs a handgun.

Campaign of Intimidation

This is disgusting. The attacks on Liberal supporters have gotten worse, it has gone from tire-slashing to brake-line cutting. What’s next? Will someone die before this is over?

Look, I’m not really a partisan so I generally don’t put signs up and I’m lucky that I keep my vehicle in a garage, but this sort of stuff would make me think twice about a lawn sign. That’s disgusting. There’s a word for a campaign of violent intimidation to effect a political end – terrorism.

Rock On

Here’s something from Canada’s own Holy Fuck:

Harper doesn’t like ‘em but my Canada includes Holy Fuck. If you don’t want to make bands conform to Harper’s arbitrary standards, then vote for whoever will stop Steve.